Produced on Radio 4 on the 20th anniversary, Gordon Corera a young journalist then, reflects on the origins and legacy after of this war. This feel particularly relevant with what is happening now: Trump and regime change in Iran.
Then it was a US-led coalition invaded Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein. The UK was America’s main partner. For many it remains a war based on a lie.
What I remember is the marches, and the lie: Weapons of Mass Distruction, and the death of Dr David Kelly a British scientist served as a United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq. And the American false linking to 9.11
1. What I didn’t know was Regime change was conceived well before 9/11. Regime change was conceived by George Bush and his vice president. Unfinished business the son to finish the work of his father. After invasion of Kuwait (I was with John Fox then) his father allowed Salam to remain in power. That and to Avenge an assassination attempt on his father. Ideologically The Neo Conservatives were powerful and wanted to use democracy to reform the Middle East. Summer 2001 plans hatched. Personal and ideological. Vice President Chenney.
2. How the UK got involved, was in part the unusual chemistry between Texan Republican Bush and Labour Blaire. Common world view. I’ll be with you whatever. Said Blair famously. Impossible for any pm to say no. Sofa politics , intimate, exclusive. Cabinet not involved. Handwritten notes I will be with you whatever. Bush listened to blaire. We were their strongest alley. Won battle to go through UN.
3. Spies: Weapons of mass destruction WMD. Condoleezza Rice This is an evil man who will wreck havoc on his neighbours with weapons of mass destruction. Legal argument. Blair could have just said I support America. Instead confirmation bias. Intelligence agencies. Known to be wrong. Public felt not authentic. Watched across pond how US conflated 9/11 with Iraq. Corera repeated: it was the spies who got it wrong. (not the politicians)
4. The inspectors. Hans Blix now in his mid 90s. It was a horrible experience. Message from USA vice president: We are going our way no matter what you do, if you can help us fine. Blix believed the intelligence that there were was WMD but began to doubt. Blix inspection was a failure. Blix accused the US and British governments of dramatizing the threat of WMD
5. No way out: Without WMD, Blair pressed for a 2nd UN resolution to legitimise a war. March optimal time for war. Marches in London 1m people. (Clare Short). UN confirmed not necessary. Blair in a quandary. UK offered a chance not to be part. But Blair opted in. If we wanted influence, special relationsnhip, and morally right. Tony Blair did not want to go to war. He fought for the 3rd way. Invasion.
6. Invasion. No decision of what political structure to come once SD dead. Mistake made trying to form a new government. Descending in to chaos. Non of options good. If left break up into factions. If stay, occupying power. Making it up as they went along. Violence extended well beyond boarders.
Eg initial rule, baned all members of Bath party. But that included doctors teachers.
I believed I was coming to an Iraq. US 95% of power. UK UK Terrific minority. Constantly mopping up behind the Americans.
7. Terror: Al-Qaeda. March 2004 first major EU attach, Spain, 200 died. London. What was the Iraq links? Known that an attack on Iraq would increase radicalisation. It gave Bin ladan his Jihad. The west is waging a war on Islam. Where we had insight into the motivations, Iraq was a contributing factor.
2007 civil war in Iraq. Shia supported by Iran revenge on Suni communities. So much death. Car bombs. 2000 murdered each month. Open Season. Bush increased troops. The surge. 2010 disputed elections. Kept Malaki in power with Iranian support. This all created conditions for the rise of ISIS.
Americans left in 2011. Creation of Caliphate in Mosel. Blair: Our mistake was we didn’t understand fully the context. It fueled terrorism and radicalisation.
8. The retreat. ISIS born. Al-Qaeda and ISIS share a common, violent jihadist ideology but are bitter rivals engaged in a power struggle for control of the global extremist movement, rather than allies. Though ISIS originated as an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq, they formally split in 2014 over tactical differences, leadership disputes, and rivalry, leading to frequent infighting, especially in Syria.
2013 Syria. Should the UK act? Cameron asked government. “Liberal Intervention’, a just war, on moral values. In the 1990’s there was a sense we know how to do nation building, Siera Leon, Kosovo was successful, Iraq changed that. Cameron – first time to loose a vote on military action in 200 years! Failure to form a red line, some say a retreat. Russians stepped in. Withdrawl in Afghanistan, space for Taliban.
9. Broken Trust. Dr David Kelly death. His death became central to a loss of trust. The americans do not share the British angst. In addition Expenses scandal. Clare Short left the party.
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