Notes from radio 4.
PLEDGES and Progress
Why gap between pledges and reality so vaste? Politics and policy. What worked, what didn’t and why.
Two blocks – politics and money – who pays, this generation for future generations, rich for poor, so many have got rich on fossil fuels. Politics – how to make changes and stay in power.
How are we doing? Ideally keep to to 1.5c increase. We need to slash emisions by 45%. Set to rise 10%.
Gulf between what needs and what is.
- Global problem with no global government. Fossil fuel industry has evaded all, strong lobby. Tobacco industry and lung conference. Their argument they need to be part of the transition.
- Most world leaders do not get climate breakdown. Short term profits rule. Agricultural yeilds will be down 30%
What’s worked and why COP summits
40,000 people spending 2 weeks together, most observers building alliances, 5% government.
Paris Agreement when we all agreed to do something. Paris worked because an alignment of two powers, USA and China. Limit global warming to >2degrees. This year a loss and damage fund, compensatory system for countries suffering. Side deals, 100 countries signing up to cut deforestation. If comparing COP to Greenhouse gas emissions – then success not realised in real world. Big bloated circus verus individual groups working throughout the year. Never been any agreement to reduce fossil fuels.
However 48 of poorest countries are most effected. The only place they have a seat at the table is COP (not G7 etc) Only democratic space for governance.
Problems coalescence around Net zero and 2050 – Net Zero leaves avenues for exploitations. Net Zero – we have 80% of our carbon down, we can offset the rest. We can still pump out tonnes of carbon. We need it before 2050. Should be Zero.
Cement /Steel too tough to decarbonise.
Current Net Zero plans dependent upon unrealistic use of land. 1.2 billion hectars of land required for carbon removal projects. Whose land get used? Food production? Indigenous lands?
Energy and fossil fuels intrinsically linked into food production. Carbon embedded in your food. No government will raise prices of food. Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown how vulnerable our energy is.
Bangaldesh climate change action plan – we cannot wait for the rest of the world. Fund to deal with impacts of climate change, rice that can grow in saline water. We have entered the era of losses and damages.
Focus on grounds for hope
- Methane – slash methane – we can take a chunk out. Nothing legally binding. Emissions from fossil fuel sector. Cows flatulence.
- Farms lives shaped by policy we see the effects of weather on a daily basis. Justice is a key part
- Colombian government recently elected, won based on a campaign based on climate. No new fossil fuels, protection of amazon. From the ground up.
- Paris agreement empowers all of us. Not wait for government. Every friday school children coming out to demonstrate – starting by Greta.
2. BEHAVIOR change
Although Government and companies have important roles to lay in making green decisions easy, around 2/3rds of emissions we create come from what we do in our homes, what we eat, how we travel and how we power our homes. We are driving climate change.
Why our brains are wired to avoid climate change? Many people feel a lack of agency. Can we make a difference? People feel alone in their concern – other people don’t care feeling.
- Citizen, history tells us, can effect
- There has been a shift from load to individual.
Moral Licencing: Are people doing what they think is green? Many people hugely overrate recycling, it’s ok if I fly, as I recycle. Eternal oral offset. However it is good to start with low hanging fruit. You don’t want people to completely change their life style.
May have adverse effects eg cutting red meat but not good for farmers. There are trade offs. Path of exploration.
Virtue signalling, this is who I am and signalling to community around.
Signalling important. Interaction between you and people around you.
Change not individual but should be reinforced by wider system, eg price structure which truly reflects carbon usage. People’s personal behaviour should be reinforced by wider systems. Eg travel.
Can you measure your carbon input (unlike global poverty). Should we move to carbon rationing?
List. These are the ones citizens have most control over.
- Eat green – get close as can to plant based diet, you don’t have to abandon meat.
- holiday local – one return flight every 3 years short haul, 8 years long haul.
- Dress retro
- End clutter – repair, reuse, keep all electronics for at least 7 years
- Talk about it – have you had a meaningful climate conversation today? How are we going to prepare. I took a train…
Why do we put off what is in our best interest? Cognitive dissonance in action: Psychology of change. Why we drink alchol smoke cigarettes yet know bad for us, existing in the gap knowing its bad for us but not wanting to act
a. Distance – problem for polar bears not mine
b. Denial – easier to head in sand
c. Defeatism – fear we are doomed.
People driven by fear or reward, some people need to be scared and some incentivized. We need climate empowerment. We are trying to jump from climate awareness to climate action. Very tricky, we haven’t had it before, appears to be a long way away. Repeated crisis, limited pool of worry. We have limited capacity to take on problems. We need to get it more integrated into our lives. Economic, social, personal issue.
Nudge theory. Very influenced by what a peers are doing. Opower Energy company printed bar chart energy usage, how much you used, neighbour used, best person in street. By this 2% decrease on the area. How to get beyond the echo chamber?
Media coverage: Government majorly failing, media covering political stories, headline grabbers. Beast from the East – we need to be calling it what it is. Stranded polar bear, emotive versus, to context of every day fringe usage (Greta says) Polar bears have been a disasterous icon for climate change – too nuch distance narative.
Future challenge not technical or financial but mindset shift, that there is a good future. Who is the best communicator? No large scale initiative. Governments need to be leading behaviour change. They work – eg 5p bag charge, seat belts. These sort of interventions we need. Everyone can afford to insulate home. Public Transport. The economic benefits – we have all we need for it. How much we stand to gain from this, not what we have to give up.
Talk climate change. 25% of world population adopting new behavior, then tipping point.
Kalikellett 